nobody knows anything
(especially the "experts")
(most especially jay bilas)


i talked about this concept this time last year shortly after everyone's OVERWHELMING favorite, uconn, pooped their pants and lost to george mason, but nobody knows anything when it comes to this tournament. that is why it is madness. that it why it is great. that said, the following can be taken with a grain of salt or as the advice of a self-proclaimed expert (i am defending a pool title this year. that, alone, makes me a more credible analyst than jay bilas.). here is the "science" i will subscribe to when i fill out my bracket tomorrow night.

* don't listen to anyone. this is of the utmost importance. again, no one knows anything. do not trust espn. si. your mother. or your friends. especially your friends. everyone becomes a college basketball "fan" when march rolls around, but most likely, most of these "fans" have not watched any college basketball up until this point. maybe their team. but your friends know nothing of winthrop. of niagra. hell, they probably don't know anything about anyone other than the top seeds. do not listen to anyone. especially your friends.

* chalk picks are lame. if you plan on picking the higher seed in each game, don't fill out a bracket. one, it's not going to work. two, it's lame.

* don't pay attention to any streaks. if you do any sort of research, you are just wasting your time. it doesn't matter if a team has won 20 straight coming in, or found their way in through the backdoor. it just doesn't matter. what will matter is who's the better team. in most cases.

* picking too many early round upsets will kill you. only rarely will a pool be decided by a margin small enough to make you think that one pick in the first round would have made a difference. you want to separate yourself from your pool. i get that. but you want to win the pool, not the first weekend. what happens when you are picking your final four teams and two of them are already out of your bracket because you thought michigan st. was a cool pick over north carolina or you thought pennsylvania was good enough to knock off texas a&m? you are going to be screwed. that's what.

* finally, the eyeball factor. if you find yourself picking a whole lot of teams that you couldn't name one player off of, two things have happened. one, you haven't watched any basketball all season and you are pulling picks out of your ass. if this is the case, the only way you will win your pool is out of sheer luck. two, you are listening to the "experts" again and letting them sway you. the eyeball factor is the most important factor when picking a bracket, because the best way to pick a game is this. play the game in your head seven times and pick the team that wins the imaginary series. that's the secret. if you haven't seen teams play, well, i don't know what to tell you. you can always go check and see who jay bilas has in his bracket. if you've seen teams play and can work with the "eyeball factor", then you are way ahead of the game.

the madness of it all is that my science could win me a pool, or it could finish me dead freaking last. either way, it's my method and i am sticking to it. tomorrow...

the picks.