why the season is officially (almost) over


note: i was much more prepared, mentally, to write this 24 hours ago before tim hudson went all "savior of the universe" on my ass last night, but i march forward anyway. i must lower my expectations here, in may, before i bury myself (and my family) under the weight of this expectation.

today is may 3rd. the atlanta braves have played 28 of their scheduled 162 games this season. any rational person would tell you that it is far too early to proclaim the 2008 season a failure. i am not a rational person. today is may 3rd, and i proclaim the braves 2008 campaign a magnificent and complete disappointment. these are the reasons why.

1) as noted by the link above, jayson stark of the worldwide leader projected the braves as his world series champion. i am not superstitious...usually. during spring training, i liked how the braves seemed to be coming together. their line-up on paper seemed pretty stout. the starting rotation and bullpen was as solid as it had been in several springs. but most of the national media kept talking up the mets and the phillies. "jimmy rollins said this." "carlos beltran said that." no one outside of the south was talking up the braves. and then jayson stark dropped this bombshell. someone as respected as stark giving props to your favorite team is never really a bad thing, but something funny happened on the way through the first month of the season. maybe due to starks' prediction, maybe not, but rather than the braves silently chewing up april wins while their competition was worried about when the phillies and mets were coming to town, the braves, all of a sudden, had a target on their back. this was not a good thing.

2) the starting pitching rotation coming out of spring:

hudson
smoltz
glavine
hampton
jurrjens

the starting rotation as of one month later:

hudson
glavine
jurrjens
jo-jo reyes
jeff bennett

as he proved again last night, hudson's still an ace. fine. he'll do his part. glavine is no longer a two guy. jurrjens has to remember he's a rookie at some point during the season even though he's been impressive. jo-jo is not ready for prime time. and bennett is terrible. and no, you didn't have to be one of the pre-cogs in minority report to have seen the hampton thing coming. but smoltz going down is a disaster. an effing disaster. that moves glavine up one spot and jurrjen up two. spots that i am not at all confident they are qualified for. and it leaves a gaping hole at the end of the rotation. the same hole the braves had last season and were never able to patch. the same hole that ended their season then. the same hole that is going to end their season now.

3) the bullpen coming out of spring:

soriano closing
moylan setting up
ohman and ring getting out lefties
acosta or boyer in the seventh
bennett and buddy carlisle getting the early inning calls to the bullpen

as of today:

acosta ('s not ready to be) closing
boyer and resop and ohman trying to do the eighth
ring struggling with lefties
carlisle doing his thing
campillo sucks (!!!)
moylan's hurt
soriano's hurt

this, my friends, is a clusterfuck, but there is potential for something quite special if, somehow (some way!!!), the braves could stay close for one more month.

potential pen in a month:

smoltz closing
mike gonzalez in the eighth
soriano in the seventh
everybody else pitches as rarely as possible

this is supposed to be a negative post, so i won't spend too much time romanticizing the potential wrecking ball that a healthy soriano, gonzalez, smoltz trio to end the game would be. i just won't.

4) injuries. chipper's quad. injuries. chipper's back. injuries.

kelly johnson's been nicked up. escobar has broken a fingernail (who breaks a fingernail?). francouer's got a gimpy foot. chipper could sneeze at any time and break a rib. every team deals with injuries. i get this. the best teams are the ones that can overcome those injuries and not use them as excuses. but, damn! the braves were healthy for about a week and when the wheels fell off, it felt like an amtrak accident. the bad tidings still haven't completely stopped and it's preventing the braves from going on any semblance of a winning streak. and it may all season. refer back to not having a fifth starter.

5) the phillies are good. so are the mets. and guess what? so are the marlins. and guess what else? the braves can't beat the nationals.

who do the braves play the majority of their games against? the four teams listed above. are they good enough to play .600-.625 ball against the four of them combined, which they'll have to do now to get out of the hole they dug for themselves in april?

my honest answer when i pose this question to myself this morning is, "no." and that changes everything. that changes my expectations for the season. and it, hopefully, will help me enjoy the braves wins a little more. hopefully, it will help the losses sting a little less. because the braves that, in my head, began the season with the playoffs as a legitimate goal are now a .500 team. 81 wins. 81 losses. that where i see them. and that is why the season is officially (almost) over.

smoltz. gonzalez. soriano. chipper playing the role of mvp. tim hudson playing the role of flash
gordon. come on, guys. give me some hope.

please.