Tuesday, December 02, 2008

my fantasy team is better than yours
(and some of it is my fault)


ok. this one's just for me. sorry. i've said this before, but i am fully aware that no one cares about my fantasy football exploits. and yet, i insist on writing about them. oh well. if this is my only display of narcissism today, you can consider it a victory.

i played the humble card less than a month ago when i was championing having clinched my fantasy football league title with three weeks remaining in the regular season. i said things like, "your (fantasy) fortunes come down to a whole lot of luck." and there is some truth to that. there is also some truth in saying that good luck played a role in my, now, having run the table completely and finished the regular season unde-freaking-feated!!! luck played a role, but so did i. let's take a look.

in my november 12th post, i pointed out how "lucky" i was for the depth on my team, good depth being the primary foundation for any solid team, fantasy or real. if you are only as good as your best player, you are bound to fail. this is no different in fantasy. i pointed to, as examples of my depth, my three first-year running backs i drafted late, all of whom have had stellar seasons for ball-carriers period, much less for rookie ones. here's the deal, though. i drafted them. and again, i drafted them all late. forte in round seven (reasonable). chris johnson of the titans in round 12 (the only player drafted in that round making any sort of fantasy impact). and steve slaton? i got him in round 16 (16 of 18!)!!! some people might call that luck. today, i will call it foresight and proof that i am better at this than you. and you. and you. and you. and you. and you. and you. and you. and you. is that nine "you"'s? i think so. so, to the nine of you that were drafting team defenses and kickers anywhere before the last five rounds of the draft, let this be a lesson to you. undefeated seasons are built on rookie running backs, not kickers. not this year.

second point. in head-to-head fantasy leagues, bad luck will usually slap you in the face a couple times a year with regards to your team's output versus the rest of the league. what i mean is, inevitably, you will post the second-highest point total in the league one or two weeks but just so happen to be playing the dude (or dudette...no girl has ever graced our league) with the highest-point total. this makes you want to scoop your eyes out of your head with a spoon. for days after that game is over, you will be telling yourself and everyone that will listen that you "would have beat EVERY other team in the league. this is so unfair!" and then your friend will either hang up on you or not respond to your email because this has already happened to him twice this year and he could give a shit about your fantasy team even though he's playing with you. this always happens. well, not always. it didn't happen to me this year. have i mentioned i went 13-0 yet?

as an addendum to the last point, i will also make this one. the best measure you have in fantasy is your total rotisserie points, the points your team has accumulated over the course of the season. this stat doesn't take into account what team you were lucky or unlucky enough to be playing and how many points they did or did not score. it just keeps a running total of your starter's points for the entire season. most of the time, this one stat will tell you how "lucky" you've actually been. if, through ten games, you have, let's say, the 6th highest rotisserie total in the league but the second or third best record, chances are you've been pretty lucky. you are playing bad teams at the right time or playing good teams having bad weeks and you are winning against the percentages. with a full season now to look at, i can see what teams in my league should have been good and which teams should not have. in this crucial stat, i was the best team in the league. and it wasn't even that close. my lowest point total of the year? 123.5. the lowest total in the league this year? 67. my team didn't have an "off" week, relative to the other teams. not one. suck it.

lastly, individual roster moves on any given week will rarely make the difference in an outcome. fantasy players may tell you that they had joe so-and-so on their bench and "if i had only played them" over joe superstar, they would have beat you. whatever. the truth of the matter is that no one sits their joe superstar. it just doesn't happen. that's why they are superstars. you draft them specifically so you never have to question them being in your line-up. their real-life opponent shouldn't make a difference. they will produce for you. maybe not monster numbers every week. but you will be happy having them on your team and in your line-up. the individual roster moves that drive fantasy guys (and girls?....again, iv'e never met one. i do hear they exist.) crazy are usually the ones of very little consequence. which tight end should i start? which kicker? which third wide receiver? who cares? they are all going to score 6 points for you anyway. don't worry about it! just stick someone in. oh, if i could only practice what i preach here. quarterbacks taken in the first four rounds of the draft fall underneath the category of joe superstars. i took mine (donovan mcnabb) in round three. it doesn't change your thinking even if they are playing a stellar defense. you drafted them this high. unless they are hurt or on their bye week, you play them. right? well, the one exception i made to this rule allowed me to remain undefeated. coming off a piss-poor performance in week eleven and facing the ravens in week 12, i benched my joe superstar quarterback. i was certain this move would backfire. it didn't. i replaced him with kerry collins. collins scored 18 points for me. mcnabb that week? negative 6. a 24 point swing. i won the week by two points, by far my most narrow margin of victory of the season. it. was. brilliant.

i could give you more examples of my domination. but i won't. the case is clear. all evidence for a proper verdict has been presented. i have just completed the fantasy football regular season that any man (or woman) geek enough to brag about it dreams of. undefeated. and proud of it. and a lot of it was my fault. so, there.

one thought of mine has not changed since november 12. i still fully expect to be bounced out of the playoffs. my braggadocio will receive it's karmic payback in full. i am aware of this. and i am ok with that. a fantasy playoff champion happens every year. undefeated regular seasons do not. i will take this to my grave with me, folks. you can count on that. and you can call me whatever word that comes to your mind right now combining the sentiments of "nerd" and "douchebag" into one fabulous utterance of disdain. i am immune to your words and thoughts. i am undefeated. i am 13-0.

good day.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

HAHAHA Yeah I think the Burgers were the only team to take the Asianmen to the cusp of defeat when we made it go to the bench points tiebreaker a few weeks back. Good season, good season. And yes, I will be knocking you out of the playoffs in the second round. It will all come together in the playoffs, it always does.

kevin said...

You like how I left that out?

I almost used our match-up as another excuse to talk about my insane depth. You did take me to OT, but the final margin of victory, including our benches, ended up being wider than my game with Clint.

I admit it. That is me spinning the real story in my favor, but all I have to say to that is...

SCOREBOARD!

:)